Local Forecast Discussion
591 FXUS65 KPIH 250847 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 247 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight. Warm and dry conditions continue as high pressure strengthens. There should be some afternoon clouds developing mainly over the central mountains, but not expecting any thunderstorms today. .LONG TERM...Monday through Sunday. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the period and possibly for some the warmest day of 2017. The ridge begins pushing east and that allows moisture to our south and west to move into eastern Idaho. We`re expecting showers and storms to develop initially over the central mountains south toward City of Rocks. Confidence isn`t high but enough moisture is there that stronger cells could produce some decent downpours. We are more confident on the risk of gusty winds. Some of the information points toward the potential of gusts over 40mph with a few potential producing gusts 50-60mph. As the storm and initial front shift eastward tomorrow night, so will the precipitation. This front also ushers in cooler air that will stick around for a bit. For Tuesday, the main threat for showers and storms remains across the central mountains and eastern highlands. There will also be the potential for development across the Snake Plain north of a Arco-Blackfoot line as a backdoor front/convergence boundary shifts south later in the day. Winds pick up with some gusty winds especially across the Snake Plain and ridgetops. At the moment, we are looking at any headlines for that impact. As a low drops south-southeast Wednesday toward the Northern Plains from Canada, more showers and storms are forecast but more confined to the eastern highlands. The end of the next week looks dry as high pressure makes a brief return. Next weekend MAY be a bit stormy as another storm sweeps inland. The models and ensembles are all over the place with how deep this system might be, but we are including isolated showers and storms over the central mountains. That`s in line with previous forecasts and surrounding offices. Temperatures bottom out midweek with highs in the 70s/low 80s for the valleys 50s/60s for the backcountry. We should a very slow climb up the thermometer heading into next weekend. Keyes && .AVIATION...The upper ridge continues to dominate the Pac NW today. VFR conditions will prevail into Monday. Hedges && .FIRE WEATHER...As upper ridging continues to build over the western US...warmer temperatures and low afternoon humidity readings will prevail through Monday. As the ridge moves east...some mid level moisture flows into Idaho resulting in thunderstorms late Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms become more numerous Monday evening as an upper trof and cold front move through the Pac NW. Limited moisture means some of these thunderstorms may be dry with gusty winds. Cooler temperatures and windy conditions can be expected on Tuesday. Hedges && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion